Modeling of Periodically Correlated Work Processes in Large-Scale Concurrent Engineering Projects Based on the DSM
This paper presents theoretical analyses of project dynamics and emergent complexity in large-scale new product development projects that are subject to the management concept of concurrent engineering. A model-driven approach is taken and a mathematical model of cooperative task processing is formulated on the basis of the theory of stochastic periodic vector-autoregressive processes. The model can capture not only the dynamic processing of the development tasks with short iteration length but also the long-scale effects of withholding the release of information on purpose. The model also provides the basis for the calculation of a closed-form solution for a metric of emergent complexity. The metric was invented in basic research and allows an explicit complexity assessment based on the model’s independent parameters.